rm(list=ls(all=TRUE))
library(foreign)
library(stats)
library(IDPmisc)
library(reshape)
library(MASS)
library(ggplot2)

#Opening the databases. In this case, governor elections are considered as the comparison group
tlax10=read.dta("/Users/Cantu/Documents/Yo/Proyectos/Dissertation/R codes Fraud/CodesAJPS/workingdata/Tlaxcala2010LN.dta")


#Getting proportions and turnout rates
tlax10[is.na(tlax10)]<-0

tlax10$totvot=tlax10$alianzaporelprogresodetlaxcala+tlax10$unidosportlaxcala+tlax10$transparenciayhonestidadportlaxc+tlax10$partidosocialista+tlax10$votosnulos
tlax10$efectv=tlax10$totvot-(tlax10$votosnulos)
tlax10$part=tlax10$totvot/tlax10$ln

tlax10$panpanal=tlax10$alianzaporelprogresodetlaxcala
tlax10$pripvem=tlax10$unidosportlaxcala
tlax10$prdptconv=tlax10$transparenciayhonestidadportlaxc


tlax10$ppanpanal= tlax10$alianzaporelprogresodetlaxcala/tlax10$totvot
tlax10$ppripvem=tlax10$unidosportlaxcala/tlax10$totvot

tlax10$pnulos=tlax10$votosnulos/tlax10$totvot

tlax10$partE=tlax10$efectv/tlax10$ln
tlax10$ppanpanalE= tlax10$alianzaporelprogresodetlaxcala/tlax10$efectv
tlax10$ppripvemE=tlax10$unidosportlaxcala/tlax10$efectv

#########
tlax10[is.na(tlax10)]<-0

#Getting rid out of the polling stations which consider voters outside the electoral precincts.
tlax10$tipocasilla[tlax10$tipocasilla=="E"]<-NA
tlax10$totvot[tlax10$totvot==0]<-NA
treated<-na.omit(tlax10)

#Number of rows for both 
R<-nrow(treated)
T<-na.omit(treated)
T<-T[order(T$seccion) , ]
#####

T<-T[ which(T$pnulos<0.05),]

#####

T$count<-1

Rt<-nrow(T)

T$Cd1<-0
for (i in 1:Rt){ 
T$Cd1[i]<-rbinom(1,1,.5)}

T$difA<-NA
for (i in 1:Rt){ 
  if(T$Cd1[i]==1){
  	for (j in 1:Rt){ 
			if((T$seccion[i]==T$seccion[j]) & (i!=j)){
				T$difA[j]<-abs(T$partE[i]-T$partE[j])}}}}
				
threshold<-quantile(T$difA,p=.95, na.rm=TRUE)

T$T1<-0
for (i in 1:Rt){ 
for (j in 1:Rt){ 
if (T$seccion[i]==T$seccion[j]){
if ((T$part[i]-T$part[j])>threshold ){ 
T$T1[i]<-1
}}}}

T$C1<-0
for (i in 1:Rt){
if (T$T1[i]==1){
for (j in 1:Rt){
if (T$seccion[j]==T$seccion[i]){
if (T$T1[j]==0){
if ((T$partE[i]-T$partE[j])>threshold){ 
T$C1[j]<-1  
  }}}}}}

T$treatedsec<-0
for (i in 1:Rt){ 
if (T$T1[i]>=1){
for (j in 1:Rt){
if (T$seccion[j]==T$seccion[i]){
T$treatedsec[j]<-1}}}
}

T$placebo<-0
  for (j in 1:nrow(T)){
    if (T$treatedsec[j]==0)
      T$placebo[j]<-rbinom(1,1,.5)
  }


W<-T[ which(T$T1==0),]
W<-W[ which(W$placebo==0),]

W$pPRIE<-W$ppripvemE
W$pPANE<-W$ppanpanalE

expPRI<-aggregate(W$pPRIE, by=list(W$seccion), 
                     FUN=mean, na.rm=TRUE)  

expPAN<-aggregate(W$pPANE, by=list(W$seccion), 
                     FUN=mean, na.rm=TRUE) 
                     
#expPRD<-aggregate(W$pPRDE, by=list(W$seccion), 
#                    FUN=mean, na.rm=TRUE)                                           
                     
colnames(expPRI)<-c("seccion","exp") 
colnames(expPAN)<-c("seccion","exp")                  
#colnames(expPRD)<-c("seccion","exp")                  
                 

locseccion<-match(T$seccion,expPRI$seccion)
n<-length(locseccion)
T$expPRI<-NA
T$expPAN<-NA
#T$expPRD<-NA

for(i in 1:nrow(T)){
	for(j in 1:nrow(expPRI)){
 if (T$seccion[i]==expPRI$seccion[j]){
 T$expPRI[i]<-expPRI$exp[j]
 T$expPAN[i]<-expPAN$exp[j]
# T$expPRD[i]<-expPRD$exp[j]
 }
}
}

T$exppri<-T$expPRI*T$efectv
T$exppan<-T$expPAN*T$efectv
#T$expprd<-T$expPRD*T$efectv

Z1<-subset(T, treatedsec!=1)

Z1$x<-Z1$exppri
Z1$y<-Z1$pripvem 

Z1$x[Z1$placebo==0]<-NA

B1a<-MCMCquantreg(y~x, data = Z1, tau=0.975, burnin = 1000, mcmc = 10000, thin = 1, verbose = 0, seed = sample(1:1000000,1), beta.start = NA, b0 = 0, B0 = 0)

B1aX0<-mean(B1a[,1])
B1aX1<-mean(B1a[,2])

B1b<-MCMCquantreg(y~x, data = Z1, tau=0.025, burnin = 1000, mcmc = 10000, thin = 1, verbose = 0, seed = sample(1:1000000,1), beta.start = NA, b0 = 0, B0 = 0)

B1bX0<-mean(B1b[,1])
B1bX1<-mean(B1b[,2])

A<-subset(T)

A$x<-A$exppri
A$y<-A$pripvem 

is.na(A$x[A$treatedsec==1 & A$T1==0])<-TRUE
is.na(A$x[A$treatedsec==0 & A$placebo==0])<-TRUE
is.na(A$y[A$treatedsec==1 & A$T1==0])<-TRUE
is.na(A$y[A$treatedsec==0 & A$placebo==0])<-TRUE

A$g<-A$treatedsec
A$g[A$g==1]<-"2. Analysis Group"
A$g[A$g==0]<-"1. Parallel"


p <- ggplot(A, aes(x, y)) 

         

pdf(file="/Users/Cantu/Documents/Yo/Proyectos/Dissertation/R codes Fraud/CodesAJPS/workingdata/TlaxcalaCHALLENGER.pdf")

p + geom_point() +
  theme_bw()+
#  aes(colour=A$DD)+
#  scale_colour_gradient(high = "yellow", low="black")+
  opts(legend.position = "none")+
  geom_abline(intercept = 0, slope = 1, colour = "red", linetype=2)+
  geom_abline(intercept = B1bX0, slope = B1bX1, colour = "green")+
  geom_abline(intercept = B1aX0, slope = B1aX1, colour = "green")+
# geom_text(aes(label=seccion))+
  facet_wrap(~ g)+
  xlab("Expected votes")+
  ylab("Observed votes")+
  opts(title="PRI, Tlaxcala, 2010 ")

dev.off()

##########################

Z1<-subset(T, treatedsec!=1)

Z1$x<-Z1$exppan
Z1$y<-Z1$panpanal

Z1$x[Z1$placebo==0]<-NA

B1a<-MCMCquantreg(y~x, data = Z1, tau=0.975, burnin = 1000, mcmc = 10000, thin = 1, verbose = 0, seed = sample(1:1000000,1), beta.start = NA, b0 = 0, B0 = 0)

B1aX0<-mean(B1a[,1])
B1aX1<-mean(B1a[,2])

B1b<-MCMCquantreg(y~x, data = Z1, tau=0.025, burnin = 1000, mcmc = 10000, thin = 1, verbose = 0, seed = sample(1:1000000,1), beta.start = NA, b0 = 0, B0 = 0)

B1bX0<-mean(B1b[,1])
B1bX1<-mean(B1b[,2])

A<-subset(T)

A$x<-A$exppan
A$y<-A$panpanal

is.na(A$x[A$suspSECC==1 & A$suspCASILLA==0])<-TRUE
is.na(A$x[A$suspSECC==0 & A$placebo==0])<-TRUE
is.na(A$y[A$suspSECC==1 & A$suspCASILLA==0])<-TRUE
is.na(A$y[A$suspSECC==0 & A$placebo==0])<-TRUE

A$g<-A$treatedsec
A$g[A$g==1]<-"2. Analysis Group"
A$g[A$g==0]<-"1. Parallel"


p <- ggplot(A, aes(x, y)) 

         

pdf(file="/Users/Cantu/Documents/Yo/Proyectos/Dissertation/R codes Fraud/CodesAJPS/workingdata/TlaxcalaINCUMBENT.pdf")

p + geom_point() +
  theme_bw()+
#  aes(colour=A$DD)+
#  scale_colour_gradient(high = "yellow", low="black")+
  opts(legend.position = "none")+
  geom_abline(intercept = 0, slope = 1, colour = "red", linetype=2)+
  geom_abline(intercept = B1bX0, slope = B1bX1, colour = "green")+
  geom_abline(intercept = B1aX0, slope = B1aX1, colour = "green")+
# geom_text(aes(label=seccion))+
  facet_wrap(~ g)+
  xlab("Expected votes")+
  ylab("Observed votes")+
  opts(title="PAN, Tlaxcala, 2010 ")

dev.off()

write.dta(T, "/Users/Cantu/Documents/Yo/Proyectos/Dissertation/R codes Fraud/CodesAJPS/workingdata/TlaxcalaT.dta")